Some targets for memory models q

This introductory article to the Journal of Memory and Language special issue on memory models discusses the progress made in the field of memory modeling during the last few decades in terms of a number of previously suggested criteria, using the articles in this issue as examples. There has been considerable progress, both at a technical level (e.g., concerning model comparison and model analysis techniques) and at a psychological level (as evidenced by the increasingly tight interplay between theory and data on human memory). The article concludes by proposing a few generic targets for future modeling work. 2006 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved. Perhaps more so than in other branches of experimental psychology, the progress made in the mathematical modeling of memory during the last few decades has been phenomenal, at least if measured by the sheer quantity of output and by the increasing sophistication of computational techniques. The articles that appear in this special issue of the Journal of Memory and Language represent the leading edge of current progress in this burgeoning field. At a time when there are important concerns about how best to analyze data from psychology experiments (e.g., Loftus, 2001), it is particularly appropriate to highlight the role of mathematical and computational mod0749-596X/$ see front matter 2006 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserv doi:10.1016/j.jml.2006.08.006 q The authors are grateful to Kay Bock, Bob Greene, and Dave Plaut for comments on this article. Preparation of this article was facilitated by a Large Grant and by a Discovery Grant from the Australian Research Council to the first author. * Corresponding author. Fax: +61 8 6488 1006. E-mail address: [email protected] (S. Lewandowsky). URL: http://www.psy.uwa.edu.au/user/lewan/ (S. Lewandowsky). eling. Our intention in this introductory article is twofold: First, we reflect on the extent of scientific progress achieved through memory modeling during the last few decades and examine how the papers in this issue relate to that progress. Second, we briefly offer our own thoughts on what targets remain to be accomplished in future research. Progress in computational modeling of memory Turning first to an examination of the somewhat vexing issue of what exactly constitutes ‘‘progress,’’ one cannot help but note that previous discussions of the issue were sometimes characterized by angst about whether the field as a whole has made sufficient cumulative advances (e.g., Krantz, Atkinson, Luce, & Suppes, 1974, cited in Estes, 1975). We take as our lead a discussion of the issue of progress and its proper metric in an influential article by Estes (1975), titled ‘‘Some targets for mathematical psychology.’’ Estes touched on a large number of issues relating to the fate of mathematical